CBO’s Farm Bill Baseline, Explained

In Washington, DC, the political party that governs the House, Senate, and White House is rightly portrayed as a major contributor to policy outcomes. But politics alone is far from the only determinant. Oftentimes, it’s the cost – or projected cost – of a program, policy, or bill that can be just as influential. For that reason, the closest observers of federal agriculture policy annually look forward to an unheralded press release from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).

Once or twice a year, the CBO releases a Budget and Economic Outlook, which includes updated economic projections of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) mandatory farm and nutrition assistance programs. These economic projections – commonly referred to as “baseline projections” or simply “baseline” – rarely grab headlines, but are nevertheless major determinants of federal…